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The data imply that the total fertility rate, which is the number of children a woman of child-bearing age can expect to have, on average, during her lifetime, may now be just 1.4, far below the “replacement rate” of 2.1, which eventually leads to the population stabilising.
数据显示,中国现在的总生育率(也就是一位妇女在其一生的时间中所能生育的孩子的数量的平均值)是1.4,远低于能维持人口数量稳定的“更新率”2.1。
Slower growth is matched by a dramatic ageing of the population. People above the age of 60 now represent 13.3% of the total, up from 10.3% in 2000 (see chart). In the same period, those under the age of 14 declined from 23% to 17%. A continuation of these trends will place ever greater burdens on the working young who must support their elderly kin, as well as on government-run pension and health-care systems. China’s great “demographic dividend” (a rising share of working-age adults) is almost over.
与人口低增长如影随形的就是人口老龄化加速。60岁以上人口的比例从2000年的10.3%上升到了今天的13.3%。同期,14岁以上人口的比例从23%下降到了17%。这种趋势如果持续下去,将会给年轻一代带来更加沉重的赡养负担,同时也会给政府的养老体系和医保体系带来沉重的负担。中国巨大的“人口红利”马上就要结束了。
P.S:“人口红利”,是指一个国家的劳动年龄人口占总人口比重较大,抚养率比较低,为经济发展创造了有利的人口条件,整个国家的经济成高储蓄、高投资和高增长的局面。
节选自Economist的The most surprising demographic crisis
由su6翻译
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